The growing use of economic weapons such as tariffs and sanctions now poses the greatest danger to global stability, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026, released ahead of its annual meeting in Davos.
Based on responses from more than 1,300 experts and leaders across business, government, academia and civil society, the report paints a bleak picture of the near future, with most respondents expecting rising instability rather than calm.
Economic Rivalries Take Centre Stage
So-called “geoeconomic confrontation” ranked as the number one global risk for 2026, ahead of misinformation, political division, extreme weather and even armed conflict between states. Around 18% of those surveyed said it was the most likely trigger for a major international crisis this year.
The risk has surged up the rankings, climbing eight places from last year to become the most severe threat over the next two years. The WEF warns that intensifying economic battles between major powers could disrupt supply chains, weaken growth and make it harder for countries to cooperate during future shocks.
The findings follow a turbulent year for global trade, marked by sweeping tariff increases introduced by US President Donald Trump on imports from dozens of countries. Those measures have rattled markets, driven up costs for businesses and consumers, and fuelled tensions with trading partners.
A More Fragile and Fragmented World
Half of the experts surveyed expect the global situation to be “turbulent or stormy” over the next two years, up sharply from 36% last year. Another 40% believe conditions will remain unstable, while only one in ten foresee anything close to stability.
Looking further ahead, the outlook grows darker. More than two-thirds of respondents predict the world will move toward a fragmented, multipolar order over the next decade, with rival blocs competing for influence.
Economic risks in general are rising fast. Fears of a global downturn and persistent inflation have both jumped sharply in the rankings, while concerns about asset bubbles and growing public debt are also increasing. The WEF cautions that, combined with trade tensions, these pressures could spark fresh waves of market volatility.
WEF managing director Saadia Zahidi described the report as an early warning signal. She said the world is entering “an age of competition” that is intensifying everything from financial instability to unchecked technological change — but stressed that these outcomes are not inevitable if governments choose cooperation over confrontation.
Technology Fears Rise as Climate Slips in the Short Term
Beyond economics, misinformation and disinformation ranked second among near-term risks, with cyber insecurity close behind. Concerns about artificial intelligence are growing especially quickly: the potential negative impact of AI jumped from 30th place in last year’s two-year outlook to fifth in the 10-year ranking, reflecting anxiety about jobs, social cohesion and security.
Social polarisation and inequality also remain high on the list, with inequality once again identified as the risk most closely linked to others.
Environmental threats, however, slipped down the short-term rankings as immediate political and economic worries dominate. Extreme weather, pollution, biodiversity loss and damage to Earth’s systems all fell several places.
Over the longer term, though, climate and environmental dangers still top the list. Respondents ranked extreme weather, biodiversity loss and major changes to Earth’s systems as the three most severe threats over the next decade, with three-quarters expecting environmental conditions to worsen significantly.
As leaders prepare to gather in Davos, the report’s message is stark: the world is becoming more divided, more volatile and more vulnerable — and avoiding the worst outcomes will depend heavily on whether countries choose cooperation over confrontation.
